The rise of the yen, the least of worries for Tokyo - August 4, 2010
In one country, Japan, where exports boost growth since late 2009, the sharp rise of the yen in recent weeks is shocking. Nissan, the third largest Nippon, said he was "very worried" the peak of the national currency against the dollar. The yen traded at a record 85.43 yen to the dollar. What start the competitiveness of the archipelago.
For three months, the dollar has lost 9.48% against the yen. A worrying trend: according to calculations by the OECD, a 10% appreciation of the yen would cut growth by 0.2 points in year one and 0.4 the second and third year. "The impact is not significant when the forecast is 2-3% growth per annum over the next two years," relativized in a note Takuji Okubo, senior economist at Societe Generale IPC.
Especially since the rise of the yen should not continue, says Raymond Van der Putten, Japan specialist at BNP Paribas: "The yen's appreciation is mainly due to poor growth expectations in the United States." Growth probably disappointing euro zone in 2010 and its own weaknesses in the Japanese economy should lead to a stronger dollar in the coming months, says the economist.
The Japanese economy has certainly been a thunderous start to the year thanks to booming exports to China and the rest of Asia. This was a very strong growth which acquired should enable the archipelago exceed the 3% growth in 2010.
The recovery falters
But recent statistics are rather alarming. Industrial production dropped 1.5% in June, after remaining flat in MayUnemployment is up slightly but steadily since January, rising to 5.3% in June And household consumption fell 2.4% in the second quarter.
"The Japanese recovery has entered a critical phase," said in a note Caroline Newhouse-Cohen, an economist at BNP Paribas. "The recovery plan and recovery of companies coming to an end." Finally, the resurgence of inflation after a long period of stagnation in prices could trim the margins of companies that will struggle to pass increases in material first on consumers.
In this context, the pressures on the government to become more insistent that extends the existing measures of recovery. No decision has yet been taken on this issue, "said Minister of Economy Satoshi Arai last week.
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"The stronger yen last fifteen years