- November 3, 2011
Why this referendum is it risky?
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The availing process of payday loans no faxing is very simple and convenient as compared to other regular loans.The government wanted to know the outcome of EU summit Wednesday evening, presented as crucial for the future of the euro area, prior to revise downward its growth forecasts. Despite the success of the meeting of the seventeen member countries of the euro area, which found the night of Wednesday to Thursday an agreement to stem the crisis at the moment on the Old Continent, the head of state n has been recognized that the Thursday night: the economy would not be up to expectations next year.
Until then, Bercy expected a GDP growth of 1.75% in 2012. But since the beginning of summer, the situation has deteriorated considerably. "For the sake of seriousness, we decided to lower our forecast to 1% next year," said Nicolas Sarkozy, who is aligned and the assumption by our German neighbor.And, near the line thickness, on the average forecast of economists (0.9%).
To keep the deficit targets despite this deterioration – and this is the top priority – must be found "6-8000000000" euros in savings or additional tax revenue next year, said Chief of the state.
Nicolas Sarkozy has asked Prime Minister Francois Fillon, with Valérie Pécresse (Budget) and Baroin (Economics), floor of the copy. And this new austerity program will be announced "in ten days," just after the G20 which takes place in Cannes.
What is certain is that "we must spend less on operating and investment to support growth (…).What we're announcing is not the rigor is the careful management ", insisted the president.
Without going into details of the options considered, the president said he did not intend to "increase the action" but "favor those that will strengthen the competitiveness" of the French economy. The executive knows that he can no longer take the risk of asphyxiating the remaining activity by a strict discipline, which would result in a tightening of the French.
No general increase in VAT
Why Nicolas Sarkozy has already categorically excluded "a general increase in VAT" which "would affect the purchasing power." "Francois Fillon did not propose, I have already spoken with him," he said.But calling for a tax harmonization with Germany, the president did not rule out the idea of raising the reduced rate (set at 7% across the Rhine at home against 5.5%) or the introduction of an intermediate VAT rate (between 5.5% and 19.6%) for products now subject to a reduced rate (catering, building …)
It announces clearly no "social VAT" – renamed "VAT antidélocalisation" to the UMP – hypothesis was raised in the procession of the tracks in the study. He implicitly endorsed the idea but has returned to the next presidential debate "in a few months."
However, companies should be tapped. Address the tax differential between multinationals and SMEs is a carrier. It is almost assumed that the new austerity plan will include a surcharge of corporate tax targeted at large enterprises.And, probably in December.
The plan will also focus on public spending – including spending on health. "We will continue to find savings on expenditures that make all the difference (…). The operating costs should continue to be better managed, "said Valérie Pécresse in the wake. The budget minister was keen to point out that the government had already made 45 billion effort two years ago, "half in reducing tax loopholes, the rest in spending."
Some ministers argue for cuts in spending this time represent half the effort (instead of one billion end of August, against 11 additional samples). Cleaving an option vis-à-vis the Socialist Party. But six months of the presidential, that is precisely what the government seeks.
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"Unfortunate but inevitable to become a company agile and competitive," with these words that Franz Van Houten, CEO of Philips since last April, has justified the 4500 job cuts (about 140,000 worldwide) announced Monday by the group. These job cuts are the result of a plan to reduce the cost of 800 million euros that the Grupe has put in place.
During the third quarter, Philips saw net profit of 85% melting, falling to 76 million euros, sales almost stable at 5.3 billion euros.
The decrease results from Philips is attributable to a decline in margins in almost all its businesses, affected by higher raw material prices and a loss of 54 million euros in the only television division.
The Netherlands announced in April the creation of a joint venture with Chinese TPV, which was to hold 70%. The operation is more complicated and time than expected to implement. Philips announced on Monday again consider all options for this activity, including abandonment, in the event that negotiations with TPV unsuccessful.
Conservative prospects
Among the plus side, the management has sought to highlight the sales growth in developing countries and the good of his health and Lighting divisions. The turnover of the latter rose by 8% over the period, including one worn by 32% growth in sales of LED. But as for the rest of the group, margins were sealed by higher raw material costs.
The group is also very prudent for future prospects.Thus, sales of its health division, specializing particularly in medical imaging, depend largely on government decisions for Buget hospitals.
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Moody's warned that it was British banks in the crosshairs. So she lowered the notes yesterday of seven small establishments that specialize in mortgages but also five major banks such as Lloyds Banking Group, which comes down a notch to "Aa3" to "A1", and Royal Bank of Scotland , which loses two notches to "A2". She also announced plans to lower the rating for long-term debt of Belgium, currently the second best possible "Aa1." The rating agency said in a statement it would review the country's vulnerability to the crisis of debt in the eurozone, growth prospects and uncertainty surrounding the possible support to the banking system, particularly the establishment Franco-Belgian Dexia.
Moody's, which has deteriorated in the wake of 9 banks in Portugal, is the difference between Portuguese and British situations.If Portugal is the financial institutions that is pointed, this is not the case in the United Kingdom. The decrease is only due to the fact that the government committed to a policy of strict fiscal discipline, is less inclined to support the bankruptcy of its banks, especially smaller ones, "It is more likely that the government is now its most smaller institutions to fail no fax cash loans. The damage does not reflect a deterioration of finances of the banking system or the government. "
Controversy over RBS
So it's the same reason that is invoked only for a few weeks ago degradation of U.S. Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo on the grounds that the state might be reluctant to help them. Political discourse is to throw doubt on the determination of the support if any one bank.The British finance minister, George Osborne, told the BBC: "People ask me how to prevent the British deposit banks to be in the future? The government is to prepare. As a result, the rating agencies believe that banks will have to prove that they themselves can pay their bills. "
Indeed, the government wants to avoid having to replicate the scheme in 2008. The State had then had to inject billions into troubled institutions, including 22 billion for RBS.
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In recent years, Dexia has moved from an institution offering a regular dividend to a penny stock that ruined its shareholders. The action is worth more than 1.06 euro on Tuesday, down 94% in five years. Until 2010, Dexia was part of the CAC 40 after entering in 1999. We now know the epilogue of a story that could be summed up in three parts: the time of ambitions, a last-minute rescue and collapse.
In 1996, the marriage of Credit Local de France and Credit Communal de Belgique is celebrated with great pomp. It gives birth to a bank player in the financing of local authorities in both France and Belgium. Rather than focus on this specialty, the leaders will demonstrate a burning ambition in the years that follow. The acquisitions will increase. Nothing is too good for executives who leave the checkbook repeatedly.No matter if capital does not follow. Access to liquidity seems unlimited and redemptions can be easily financed. Dexia is the time highly rated by rating agencies.
In 1997, Dexia is a 40% stake in the Italian specialist of financing local authorities. Units held will be brought to 60% in 1998. Especially in 2000, Dexia made two acquisitions that will prove disastrous. The property bought FSA in the United States for 2.7 billion euros. This company called credit enhancer has become over the years one of the insurance behemoth of financial securities. Moreover, again in 2000, Dexia bought Bank Labouchere. A few years later, a scandal will cost several hundred billion euros to Dexia. It turns out that customers of Labouchere bought shares on credit, the establishment of incentive. The crash of 2001-2002 and ruined.
Payment of a dividend is known to be regular and copious
At the time, financial analysts and portfolio managers criticize little Dexia. The bank made steady progress in earnings per share. It pays a dividend is known to be regular and plentiful. Many individual shareholders, entered the capital of Crédit Local in 1991 and have remained loyal to Dexia. No one really makes the fact that the risk profile of the bank has been completely changed.
In 2004-2005, Dexia is the subject of many rumors of marriage. Pierre Richard, the head of the bank, Dexia is that merged with the Italian Sanpaolo. He turned down its directors and officers in Italy. In September 2005, leaders refuse to merge with Dexia Fortis. Rumors of an alliance with Societe Generale also circulating, but nothing concrete emerges from the noise corridor.At the end of 2005, the action is close to 20 euros.
In 2006, is welcomed. It enables Dexia to enter the promising market of the local retail banking. In late April 2007, Dexia's most button above historical 24.51 euros.
Its subsidiary FSA is vulnerable
When the subprime crisis broke, the bank is discreet. She knows that its subsidiary FSA is vulnerable. The leaders tried to reassure but the 2008 financial crisis and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers will put the institution to its knees. In autumn 2008, the CDC, the State and the Belgian regions implement a capital increase of EUR 6.4 billion. In addition, the Belgian, French and Luxembourg governments were forced to implement security to enable the bank to borrow again.
Despite reduction measures and restructuring the balance sheet, and his teams have not managed to recover the bank.The task was daunting given a totally unbalanced balance sheet. The latest figures, Dexia had 6.9 billion euros of capital to 517 billion euros of assets. Shareholders are ruined and no one said that the action could still have value in the coming months. As for local governments, many of them are dissatisfied because the Dexia led to raise loans in Swiss francs to take advantage of the difference in interest rates. Only the value of the Swiss franc has soared, and the weight of loans proved unbearable for many communities.
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Since the presentation of the tablet from Amazon on Wednesday night, no one talking about it: price, so aggressive. At $ 199, Kindle the Fire will be 60% cheaper than the first of the iPad, sold to 499 dollars (489 euros in France). If the surprise is – analysts had expected, at best, at a rate of $ 249 – Tablet Amazon profits actually a series of well thought out choices that contribute to get its costs down without crop quality business
A reversal? 3D movies, which have attracted a global craze with the release of Avatar two years ago, no longer win the accession with the French public. This is the conclusion of a survey conducted by the online trade magazine Le Film French, and Allociné UP3D this summer with a sample of 11,867 respondents aged 15 to 64. Against all odds, the audience would have preferred to see 80% 2D 3D movies … because of the price (35%), discomfort glasses (25%), the images are too dark (15%) or the migraine (15%) or simple rejection of the 3D (10%), the study said. Even better, viewers have seen impose regret this format and not being able to only 27% choose to see the film in 2D.
Moreover, only 20% of viewers are satisfied with the quality of 3D against 57% who are not.Finally, the audience was quick to tell the difference between films shot in 3D directly and adjustments made after a shooting in 2D. 40% of respondents are low marks for quality movies converted to 3D in extremis.
Debate raging in the big Hollywood studios
The Médiamétrie, which just made the trade magazine Cinema side a study on the digitization of cinemas, also notes "that public disaffection for 3D and shortness of admissions." But stresses Aurélie Rix, director of the film to Médiamétrie, "operators are still in the 3D and digital opportunity to bounce back by opening their screens with other forms of entertainment and projections such as concerts or sporting events.Enough to return to the class rooms of viewers who had abandoned the big screen. "
Film Studies and French Médiamétrie fall even more steeply that the debate has raged all summer in the big Hollywood studios face the same public resistance which gradually moving away from 3D screens to return to the conventional screen. In its edition of August 12 the very serious Wall Street Journal noted that if 70% of revenues from Alice in Wonderland 3D projections came in 2010, however, 57% of viewers were content to the 2D projection of the last Harry Potter Business Card Holders. There were only 45% choose the 3D much for The Green Lantern and Kung Fu Panda, and 47% for the last Pirate of the Caribbean.In comparison, Avatar, despite the lack of 3D displays of the time, had achieved 75% of its revenue projections through 3D.
Minimize the reversal of consumers
This loss occurs even Hollywood has doubled its number of 3D productions for 2011 compared to the previous year. As many as 16 films planned for this year. Not least because the three main sponsors of the American cinema – Francis Ford Coppola (Twixt), Martin Scorsese (Hugo) and Steven Spielberg (Tintin and the Secret of the Unicorn) – announced rotate in 3D. Not to mention that Ridley Scott is preparing its new Alien, named Prometheus. They try to minimize this reversal of consumers claiming the quality of films.In essence, they recall that a bad movie is always a bad film and even 3D viewers the sanction as such.
Add to this the fact the United States the number of cinema admissions fell by 9% over the first six months of the year and the animated films, privileged territory of the 3D n ' have much more coast than in the past. Rio de la Fox, Paramount and the Rango Hop Universal have jointly made fewer entries than Shrek 3, four years ago, noted the New York Times last May.
What lead to the skepticism of financial markets, the Wall Street Journal, the stock market would have penalized companies specializing in 3D technology, such as RealD. All indicators that are forcing studios to rethink their strategy for production and slow down.Bad news for manufacturers of 3D TV, 3D content eager to boost their sales to come.
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Reform of the ISF, Act I. Passed last spring, the overhaul of the tax on capital is available in two years, 2011 and 2012. Because of these changes, the deadline for the declaration and payment of ISF is also exceptionally attached to September 30 this year.
From 2011, households with between 800,000 and 1,310,000 euros of assets are exempt from wealth tax. These homes are thus 300 000 received no tax declaration form. However, some tax advice to households close to the threshold of 1.3 million to make a statement (see interview below). In addition, taxpayers with between 1.3 and 3 million of assets this year have a simplification of formalities in their statement.
In 2011, the old scale of the ISF continues to apply. This is a scale that works in phases, with six tax rates.The first tranche that between 800,000 and 1.3 million euros of assets, is still active for those households that remain subject to the ISF is to say that over 1.3 million property. Thus, a taxpayer with a wealth of 3 million will pay a wealth tax of 16,555 euros (0.55% share of its assets from 0.8 to 1.31 million, 0.75% between 1.31 and 2 , 57% between 1 million and 3 million and 2.57).
The reform of the TFR is consistent with the removal of the tax shield. However, because the mechanism of the shield, which is shifted in time, taxpayers will still be entitled to a shield in 2011 and 2012 respectively on their overpaid tax in 2011 and 2010. The shield does not really disappear in 2013.
But some practical rules are changing.Until September 30, recipients of the shield can either request a refund check to the treasury, or less money on ISF, local taxes or payroll taxes on the amount of shield.
New scale in 2012
As of September 30, one lane remains: the allocation of the shield on the bill of ISF. One way to avoid the controversy of previous years on the checks sent to taxpayers' net worth …
Finally, indebted to the ISF will be eligible for the last time this year the cap of the ISF (wealth tax, social security contributions and income tax can not exceed 85% of revenues). In 2012, the cap will no longer exist.
It is also that next year will apply the new scale of ISF. The assets of between 1.3 and 3 million will be taxed at 0.25% and beyond 3 million at 0.5%. But the tax will no longer increments.
2 million households with wealth pay 5000 euros to ISF (2,000,000 multiplied by 0.25%) and with 4 million euros of assets 20 000 EWB (4,000,000 multiplied by 0.5%). Next year, households with between 1.3 and 3 million of assets no longer meet reporting ISF: they will show their heritage in a special box on their tax return. Only taxpayers with more than 3 million of goods will continue to make their declaration of wealth tax, to make the June 15, 2012.
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The mining industry in developed countries is not quite dead. Yet the crisis of 2008 had seemed to him a fatal blow, after years of attrition caused by the scarcity and soaring costs of extraction. But today, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada … mines reopened thanks to soaring commodity prices.
Chibougamau camp, north of Montreal, had not survived the collapse of prices and had to close in 2008 after fifty years of activity. But the soaring price of copper (+47% in one year), gold (+40% in one year) and money (113% in one year) has to hope René Galipeau, CEO of Nuinsco: "Hundreds of children left when the production was closed after years of operational and financial problems.But work on only two mines could lead to the reopening of the Chibougamau camp … and the return of minors to accelerate the revival of the region. "
Nuinsco group is not the only one who had this idea. Many investors would like to reopen the largest gold mine Bontddu UK (Wales). It must be said that the price of gold rose from $ 250 per ounce in 1999 to 1850 dollars lately!
Local authorities are sometimes hostile
"When we closed the mine, it had become too expensive to operate but with the rising price of gold, we are considering reopening the Clogau mine," Wales said Ken Jones, manager of marketing Clogau Gold jewelry company which owned the rights to the mine.
Other metals are benefiting from soaring prices.Thus, the largest silver mine in the United States will also open in Texas as well as the Chino Mine (copper) in New Mexico. In Britain, the last tin mine, South Crofty Mine, closed in 1998, remember to return to activity. The metal price has increased fivefold over the period (+51% over the year).
Nevertheless, we are still far from the great return of the mining industry. Two challenges are needed to interested investors: the financing of such a project (Nuinsco believes that it would require 40 to 50 million dollars to revive the Chibougamau camp) and agreement with local authorities, sometimes hostile projects. This is the case in South Crofty in England, where the community wants to build a recreation center on the site.
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After months of tensions, the thaw begins between Areva and EDF. Luc Oursel, the president of the giant nuclear conducted this afternoon in his first official friendly in its factory in Saint-Marcel, near Chalon-sur-Saone, the chairman of EDF, Henri Proglio. The symbol is strong. And the two heavyweights of the team of France's nuclear formalized their merger by signing three agreements "technical and commercial." The event was announced by The Tribune before being confirmed by the Minister of Industry, Eric Besson, who also visited the site of Saône-et-Loire.
Luc Oursel assured wanting to "write a new page" in the history of relations between Areva and EDF. For its part, Proglio said that "Areva is intended to be a major partner of EDF".
Specifically, these agreements should help to clarify the relationship between the two groups.They focus on "the pursuit of optimizing the EPR, increased maintenance of the park" and "the strengthening of industrial cooperation on the storage of radioactive waste." Described as "historic in some ways" by Eric Besson on France Inter this morning, they aim to "ensure consistency throughout the French nuclear industry."
"A willingness to cooperate more»
A fourth agreement should focus on optimizing the third generation EPR reactor, improved maintenance and operation of existing nuclear plants, to prepare for extending the period of operation beyond 40 years and the management of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle.
The date of its signature was not specified, but it should occur in September, according to a promise of college participants in the meeting.Which will complete the strategic partnership, called by President Nicolas Sarkozy in July 2010.
The two companies also intend to continue discussions on the development of medium-power reactor Atmea, in which EDF would not participate. But these discussions will lead to another executive that the contracts mentioned Monday.
Another point of interest between the two groups that was you today, the assumption of an equity investment by the electrician in the future mining subsidiary of Areva is "neither foreseen nor ruled out," says Eric Besson. "There is a current subsidiary of the Areva mining activity that had been recorded and we will see who will enter the capital," he said. The latter, however, said on France Inter does not "feel" at Henri Proglio will "particular" to enter the capital of Areva."I feel from Proglio a willingness to cooperate more with Areva, what we today RECORDED agreements very important, but I do not feel particular pressure at home to enter the capital of Areva" said he. No details were given about not e the two leaders after their meeting.
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