Overheating warning of emerging countries Coface - June 30, 2011
The emerging markets are facing a "problem-rich" fight against the overheating of their economies – from 6 to 7% last year – when developed countries are seeking to boost their low growth. "Their macroeconomic management faces a dilemma: keep inflation that accompanies this growth through restrictive monetary and fiscal policies, knowing that increases in interest rates contribute to the massive influx of capital," says chief economist of Coface, Yves Zlotowski. Some countries are better equipped, such as Brazil, the driving force of the South American continent and one of the first to respond, noting early on interest rates and imposing taxes on capital inflows.
Dilma Rousseff, Lula's successor as president, also began to impose fiscal restraint.If the funds continue to flow, growth has slowed down somewhat in the first quarter to 4.2% against 7.5% previously. "Brazil is a highly diversified economy in its exports, with an internal market dynamics. Above all, the country has lead the last ten years important structural reforms, "adds the analyst.
"Institutional delay"
Conversely, the credit insurer is more concerned about the neighbor Argentina, faced with high inflation of 23%, where the industry is operating at full capacity, supported by consumption and fiscal and monetary policy very accommodative personal loans for people with bad credit. Overheating is very important in part masked by a current account surplus driven by exports of soybeans in China. But the landing is likely to be brutal crash.
In Asia, the weakest link is located in Vietnam, with a very open economy model of development with Chinese characteristics, based on the investment, mainly Asian. Iran is benefiting from rising costs in China, resulting in even relocation. This generated a huge credit bubble, whose share in GDP increased in ten years from 30 to 120%. The difference is that it does not have the same cash reserves that China and he is obliged to regularly devalue its currency, the dong. "There is a real institutional delay, the risk is, in a skid, discourage investment, which finance the huge current account deficit," Yves Zlotowski analysis.
However, the restrictions put in place gradually in the large emerging economies – China, India, Turkey, Brazil – should provide a soft landing.The challenge is to develop real consumer markets that go through a reduction in inequalities and a growing middle class and to provide for future growth in developed countries.
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